Friday, March 6, 2009

It's Official - "The Obama Bear Market"

Bloomberg is now calling it the Obama bear market. “It’s the Obama bear market,” said Dan Veru, who helps oversee $2.8 billion at Palisade Capital Management in Fort Lee, New Jersey. “We don’t know what the rules are in so many different areas the government is touching.”

The markets have so far given Obama a clear thumbs down. Interestingly, the public still largely approves of the president's performance. A full 63% approve of the way the president is handling his job.

I think this can largely be explained by two factors. First as Neil Cavuto pointed out on Fox News yesterday, the market always leads public opinion. He also noted that Jimmy Carter's approval was 70% at this time in his presidency, which didn't work out so hot.

Also, I think there is a clear 'rallying around the president' effect we are seeing in a crisis. Just as occurred after 9/11. People forget that Bush's approval rating was around 90% in the months after the attacks.

I expect the current poll numbers to drop as the markets continue to drop. They simply have no confidence in what Obama is doing.

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